Revenge of geography | Robert D. Kaplan

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • In this “ambitious and challenging” (The New York Review of Books) work, the bestselling author of Monsoon and Balkan Ghosts offers a revelatory prism through which to view global upheavals and to understand what lies ahead for continents and countries around the world.

This is one of the best geopolitics books you can read. The first section of the book discusses theoretical elements, going from Herodotus to Morgenthau. In the second section, Kaplan applies these theoretical elements to the various geopolitical dilemmas of the 21st century: Russia, China, India, and the Middle East. Finally, in the most exciting chapter, he discusses the future of US foreign policy. He questions the excessive attention that has been paid to the Middle East and calls for reinforcing the attention of the northern country on the American continent.

Kaplan combines the best of many worlds: extensive knowledge of states, peoples and their historical backgrounds, travel experiences, a clear vision, and an equally clear pen. The link with Fernand Braudel, who argued that France was the product not of its politics or economics but rather of its geography and culture, made in the last chapter, underlines once again the importance of a study of contemporary international relations in general and geopolitics in particular for the science of history. While history professors usually blurt out minor aspects of geography or casually drop Braudel's ''Mediterranean'', Kaplan rightly confronts the reader with the facts: Geography is of prime importance to anyone who wants to understand the world and its history without resorting to determinism. It is high time that our historical education started to value geopolitics again, and it is high time that Kaplan'sKaplan's works were given more attention.

Understanding Geopolitics

Geopolitics is the art of controlling the world through the application of geographical strategies. If the term geopolitics is mentioned, the theory of the strategic thinker Halford Mackinder, known as the "central region," comes to mind. What is that theory?

Briefly, the theory says: "Whoever controls the heart region controls the global island (Eurasia, meaning Europe, Asia, and Africa), and whoever controls the global island controls the world."

Let me explain this briefly to make the theory clear. Mackinder divides the world into three sections, namely (the heart region, the inner crescent region, and the outer crescent region).

The heart region means the "central region," which is the most critical region for the sovereignty of the world. It means "Eastern Europe," that is, its borders are on the east with China, on the west by the Volga River (which is located in the west of Russia), on the north by the frozen ocean, and on the south by the plateaus of Asia and the Himalayas. The inner crescent region, which is the second fulcrum, that is, what surrounds the heart region in the form of an arc. It refers to Western Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and the remaining regions of Asia. He says that this region is a region of conflict between the land and naval forces. The outer crescent region means the arc that surrounds the inner crescent, i.e., the islands that surround the three continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa, and include North and South America, Australia, England, and Japan, and this range has great naval power.

Based on that, the hypothesis says that whoever controls the heart of the world (the central region) controls the global island (i.e., the inner crescent), and whoever controls the global island controls the world (i.e., the outer crescent).

However, a theory is not fulfilled until criticised, as this theory was built on geographical and historical data and accumulations at that time and was adopted by strategic planners. However, at present, it lacks behind as there are other elements at play such as advanced technology, air cover, natural resources, economic factors, demographic distribution, and other such aspects. These elements will play a crucial role in the emerging geopolitical scenario in the 21st century.

The connection of Geography & Politics in Kaplan's View

Let us take the example of the Middle East region. It is one of the regions that suffer from the most water scarcity, especially since many of its countries and urban areas are afflicted by crises and long-term military conflicts. Let'sLet's take a look at the reality of the situation in this region and the current and expected challenges to securing water in it, and ways to overcome them.

Protracted crises and armed conflicts in urban contexts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region present a growing challenge to the population's access to fresh water. Experts say the Arab region will suffer most from water scarcity due to rapid population growth, lack of transboundary water agreements, unsustainable water management, and widespread environmental degradation, primarily due to armed conflict.

Water enjoys special protection under international humanitarian law, as Article 54 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions of 1949 states: "It is prohibited to attack, destroy, transfer or disrupt objects and materials indispensable to the survival of the civilian population, such as foodstuffs, agricultural areas that produce them, crops, livestock, and facilities. Drinking water, its networks, and irrigation works."

Direct damages due to conflicts

Urban residents are highly dependent on essential services to meet their needs. Therefore, they are vulnerable to any fluctuations in essential services that may occur due to the conflict.

Essential services include those vital to ensuring the livelihood of the civilian population, including electricity, health, water, sewage treatment, and solid waste disposal. These services and their management are linked to each other, which does any harm to one sector reflected in the other sectors.

These sectors depend on three elements: the human factor, infrastructure, and energy materials for their operation. Fighting often leads to damage to these infrastructures, in addition to the loss of the human element which manages them due to injury or displacement. The basic materials for their operation may become unavailable.

In countries experiencing protracted conflict, children under the age of five are 20 times more likely to die from diarrheal diseases associated with unsafe water and sanitation than from violence in conflict.

In Yemen, for example, the destruction of sewage networks and water treatment plants across the country resulted in the rapid spread of the cholera epidemic. According to a study conducted by the American Rand Corporation in Gaza, more than a quarter of all diseases registered in the Strip are caused by poor quality water and demanding access. In Syria, the water shortage remains one of the main concerns of the civilian population in many areas.

Multiple causes of the crisis

Several factors exacerbate the water crisis in the Arab region, such as the unsustainable use of natural resources, widespread environmental degradation, and high exposure to climate change in light of low environmental awareness, with aging water and sanitation infrastructure.

Moreover, what is most evident today is that the provision of water and sanitation services is deteriorating due to conflict and violence. Sanctions, embargoes, and other forms of restrictions can also be significant barriers to the import of items that can be considered "dual-use items" but are essential to the safe delivery of water and sanitation services such as petroleum and chlorine.

Partnership as a solution

In the face of crises, an urban community needs to rely on resilient infrastructure while managing water resources, which are already scarce, in a sustainable manner. The void in water management and the environment during protracted crises affects the quantity and quality of water for water and sanitation service providers. It is often directly reflected in the rapid deterioration of water quality.

Groundwater is also particularly threatened by overexploitation caused by the lack of enforcement of regulations or by the rapid increase in well drilling as part of the emergency response. This leads to a rapid decrease in water levels and an increase in salt concentrations. In coastal areas, it can lead to saltwater intrusion into groundwater.

In the absence of proper regulation, monitoring, or data, service providers face uncertainties about groundwater storage, which makes it challenging to predict groundwater levels and quantify the threat to groundwater.

International organizations define a list of policies that should be followed to confront the decline in water resources in times of crisis. These include working with service providers to rehabilitate existing wells instead of digging new emergency wells, improving rainwater management, and working to reduce pollution levels through wastewater treatment.

Understanding basic urban services and their interconnection with care is essential to avoid prolonged disruption to basic services, which means that the approach to urban services is a mixture of prevention, response and protection measures.

Concluding

This is a must-read for anyone interested in Geopolitics. The book gives a full-fledged introduction to geopolitics and realism in the first part, a detailed account of the geopolitical elements of contemporary power relations in the second, and an interesting look at the American future in the third. This book is a brilliant rebuttal to thinkers who suggest that globalism will trump geography, this indispensable work shows how timeless truths and natural facts can help prevent this century’s looming cataclysms.

In the bestselling tradition of Why Nations Fail and The Revenge of Geography, an award-winning journalist uses ten maps of crucial regions to explain the geopolitical strategies of the world powers. You can also read Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall. https://www.rajulsingh.in/post/prisoners-of-geography-tim-marshall-book-review